(Tetlock, Philip E., and Dan Gardner. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. First edition. New York: Crown Publishers, 2015).
We are all forecasters…
We are all forecasters, and we base our daily routines on all kinds of small scale predictions. We predict that there will be a traffic jam at peak hour, so we plan accordingly and avoid driving at that time, and we expect that the rainy forecast for tomorrow is accurate, hence we decide to post pone the organized trip for another time. Such predictions are usually successful, since traffic jams are easily predictable and weather forecasts are trustworthy. But when it comes to more complex events, such as political or financial ones, we might not be as successful. When it comes to such matters, common sense seems to dictate that forecasts are best left to well-informed experts. Continue reading The art and science of prediction